Commercial Electric Vehicle Market Demand, Investment Feasibility and Forecast

Posted by Rahul Gautam on December 27th, 2021

The World Bank estimates that nearly 35% of the Indian population and 87% of Brazil’s population resided in urban areas in 2020. The World Bank also states that 185,081,850 people and 481,980,330 people resided in urban areas in Brazil and India, respectively, in 2020. Thus, the high urbanization rate here will augment the production and adoption of commercial electric vehicles (EVs), owing to the increasing air pollution levels caused due to conventional commercial vehicles.

Moreover, the improving operational efficiency and declining cost of batteries will fuel the commercial electric vehicle market at a robust CAGR of 13.3% during 2018–2025. As the battery accounts for a significant part of the commercial EV production cost, any plunge in the battery cost would enable automakers to cut down the selling price of such automobiles. The reducing battery cost can be credited to the rising technological advancements in and surging production of such energy storage devices in emerging economies, such as China.

Buses and trucks are the two types of commercial EVs being integrated into transportation systems across the world. AB Volvo, Bozankaya A.S., Dongfeng Motor Corp., Tata Motors Ltd., Bluebus SAS, Chariot Motors, Proterra Inc., Ashok Leyland Ltd., Caetanobus — Fabrico De Autocarros E Carrocarias S.A., BYD Co. Ltd., Alstom–NTL, and Alexander Dennis Ltd. are the leading electric bus manufacturers. Whereas, Cummins Inc., Scania AB, E-Force One AG, Workhorse Group Inc., Hino Motors Ltd., Nissan Motor Co. Ltd., and Isuzu Motors Ltd. are some of the prominent electric truck manufacturers.

At present, companies operating in the commercial electric vehicle market are engaging in product launches, facility expansions, and mergers and acquisitions to expand their clientele. For example, in August 2018, LCK6120EVQG, a 12-meter electric bus model, was introduced by Zhongtong Bus Holding Co. Ltd. in China. The bus is equipped with state-of-the-art technologies and made of magnesium alloy materials and carbon fiber to reduce its overall weight by 26%. Similarly, in September 2018, Mercedes-Benz announced its plan to begin the practical trials for an all-electric heavy-duty truck, named eActros.

According to P&S Intelligence, Asia-Pacific (APAC) adopted the highest number of commercial EVs in the preceding years, and it is expected to adopt them at the highest rate in the forthcoming years too. This can be ascribed to the surging focus of the government of China on increasing the deployment of electric buses in the transportation system of the country. Additionally, the plunging costs and increasing production of advanced batteries in China facilitate the purchase of commercial EVs.

Thus, the surging urban population of developing countries and declining battery costs will augment the adoption of commercial EVs worldwide.