Market for Next-Generation Solar Cells Expected to Hit .4 Billion by 2028 with 19.5% CAGR

Posted by edwardzmusso on June 4th, 2024

The next-generation solar cell industry size is valued at USD 3.0 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 7.4 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 19.5% during the forecast period from 2023 to 2028. The major driving factors are technological advancement in next-generation solar cells, government initiatives in solar PV projects, and increasing demand for solar cells in the residential and commercial sectors.

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Driver: Technological advancements in next-generation solar cells

The solar cell has different generations based on development. The first-generation solar cell includes solar cells based on crystalline silicon material. The second-generation solar cells are thin film solar cells which is the primary focus of this report. It includes materials cadmium telluride (CdTe), amorphous silicon (a-Si), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), and Gallium Arsenide (GaAs). The third generation of solar cells is new in the next-generation solar cell market; some are not yet commercialized. Third-generation solar cells in organic solar cells, dye-sensitized solar cells, and perovskite solar cells have been included in other sections. Technological advancements such as the development of Thin-Film technology are making it possible to create solar cells that are more efficient, cost-effective, and durable while using less material.

Opportunity: Surging demand for renewable energy

In the past few years, the demand for renewable energy has surged. With governments worldwide coming together for initiatives such as the Paris Climate Agreement, the demand for renewable energy, such as solar, is set to rise in the coming years. According to a 2018 report by the International Energy Agency, renewables will have the fastest growth in the electricity sector, catering to almost 30% of the power demand by 2023. During this period, renewables are forecast to account for more than 70% of global electricity generation, led by solar PV. Moreover, according to a March 2020 report by the International Renewable Energy Agency, solar and wind energy continued to dominate renewable capacity expansion, jointly accounting for 90% of all net renewable additions in 2019. Solar energy prices are already below retail electricity prices in major countries such as China.

Cadmium telluride (CdTe) material-based solar cells are expected to have the largest market size during the forecast period. CdTe solar cell material is frequently in the utility-scale solar industry, including large-scale solar power plants that are designed to feed electricity into the grid. CdTe solar cells have high efficiency and cost-effectiveness. The market for others is expected to grow with the highest CAGR during the forecast period. Organic material-based solar cells have been increasingly used to power small electronic devices such as smartphones, tablets, and wearable technology, among others, boosting the market growth of these materials during the forecast period.

The residential segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period by end-user industry. To fulfill the home's electricity needs, solar cell-based PV systems are installed on the rooftop or at a location where adequate sunlight is available. Electricity is required for in-home lighting and ventilation solutions and several other consumer electronics and appliances, such as water pumping systems, lanterns, radios, televisions, flashlights, outdoor lights, security systems, gate openers, and fans. These solar cell-based PV systems need batteries to store electricity, and charged batteries can be used when needed. The excess electricity (if generated) can be sold by transferring it to the national or local electricity grid (depending on the system feasibility, availability, and the policy of the government and electricity company). PV systems are useful in remote areas and faraway villages where electricity grids are not available.

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Asia Pacific is expected to continue to dominate the next-generation solar cell market from 2023 to 2028. The growing adoption of PV modules in countries such as China, Japan, and India is fueling the regional market's growth. Next-generation solar cells have higher efficiency and excellent natural and artificial light performance than silicon-based cells. The thickness of a next-generation solar cell is under one micron and can be manufactured at low temperatures using low-cost technologies, such as printing.

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