Horse Racing Handicappimg Tips

Posted by Nick Niesen on October 26th, 2010

Horse racing handicapping should include analyzing the human element, especially in claiming races when a horse makes his first start for a new trainer. It's quite common among novices simply glance at a horse?s speed indexes and final times when making their selections, but wise handicappers compare the records of the current and previous trainer. The several questions may arise: when is the right time to wager on a horse in a new barn, why does a horse suddenly improve or regress for a new trainer, what rules should we understand about a newly claimed horse?

We must first analyze the record of the former conditioner before we judge whether a trainer can improve his recently claimed horse, for instance, if high-percentage trainer claims a horse from a trainer with a poor winning percentage, we can assume the horse will improve in his new surroundings, and if a low-percentage trainer claims a horse from the track?s leading trainer, we can conclude the animal won?t improve - more than likely, he will regress.

Quite often, we are able to eliminate from consideration a betting underlay when the horse goes from a high- to a low-percentage barn. Indexes of a high recent speed horse for a leading trainer often has declining figures for a new outfit. This may result in betting overlay when a horse with dismal recent form for a low-percentage trainer hooks up with leading trainer in wins.

On the one hand, a claimed horse returned at or below its last claimed price used to be considered a negative but with higher purses nationally, a claimed horse can earn a sizable pot even if he is returned at the level he was purchased. More trainers are willing to risk possibly losing their newly claimed horse for the same or even a slightly lesser price because they would still earn a profit from the purse winnings.

It's easy to understand why some trainers are willing to run their newly claimed horses at or below their claimed price - they place their horses where they are most likely to win, and even if another trainer claims one of their horses, they will show a return on their investment if the horse wins or hits the board.

Always consider jockey and equipment changes - a horse claimed from a low percentage stable is likely to have a top rider for his new barn, and a leading jockey on a newly claimed horse would be a big improvement over his previous riders who might have a low win percentage.

For a successful analysis of a newly claimed horse, we must know as much about the new trainer as we do the horse. Remember, handicapping the horse and trainer separates the novice from the veteran.

Like it? Share it!

Nick Niesen

About the Author

Nick Niesen
Joined: April 29th, 2015
Articles Posted: 33,847

More by this author