In discu sing the i sue with a sorted Cubs following the game

Posted by Abbey Pendleton on September 23rd, 2017

Last night, the Cubs saw their ace, Jake Arrieta, quit four runs in five innings in their Game Two lo s to the Mets. Given how recently he seemed completely impo sible hitting, it had been bit jarring to see Arrieta struggle, and multiple observers noted throughout the game that his velocity seemed to be below what he was throwing throughout the regular season. Je se Rogers post-game recap on ESPN being headlined Jake Arrietas velocity dip spelled doom for Cubs

In discu sing the i sue with a sorted Cubs following the game, Rogers noted that Joe Maddon first viewed it as well.

In the sport there, in the event that [radar] gun was correct on the field, he might have been down a mile a couple of hours, thats what I saw, Cubs skipper Joe Maddon said. And when that happens, the breaker, the commitment to the breaking ball isn't as definite from the hitters perspective, because theyre capable of seeing everything better.

Arrieta himself noted that he knew his stuff wasnt as good.

I knew the high-end velocity wasnt nece sarily there tonight, he explained. Threw quite a few changeups to offset that.

Hes not kidding. After throwing just one change-up Jeff Janis Jersey total in his previous two postseason starts, Arrieta fired off 10 change-ups from the Mets yesterday. The change-up isnt a pitch he features much, as only about 5% of his total pitches this year were changeups. The truth that 11% of the pitches he threw were change-ups last night does suggest he didnt trust his normal repertoire as much, and it was looking for ways to get outs without his best stuff.

Including the postseason, Arrieta has thrown 249 innings, so its natural to think that perhaps hes deteriorating after carrying a really heavy workload. And then any time theres a decline in velocity, its easy to jump to conclusions, especially if the answers are worse than youd expect as well. But, in this case, I wouldnt be too quick to summarize that last night was proof that Arrieta sports down.

Most importantly, theres the weather to think about. It hadAaron Rodgers Jersey been cold in Ny this weekend, and game time temperature only agreed to be 45 degrees. As Mike Fast (among others) has previously shown, there's a quite strong outcomes of velocity and temperature.

Fast noted that his research showed a 1 mph improvement in fastball speed for every 37 degree alternation in game-time temperature. Obviously, there hasnt been that giant of a difference in temperature between his last two starts, but game-time temperature was 68 degrees in Pittsburgh when Arrieta turn off the Pirates, and 73 degrees in Chicago for his start against the Cardinals. The game over game temperature decline from Arrietas last start was 28 degrees, so we probably shouldnt be too surprised that his velocity was down relative to the last time he was on the mound.

Indeed, per Brooks Baseball, Noah Syndergaards velocity seemed to be down last night, though not really visibly. In the start against the Dodgers, the Mets young flamethrower averaged 98.7 with his fastabll; yesterday, he averaged 98.3. The drop was a bit more noticeable on his curveball, when went from 82.4 to 81.2. Syndergaard was still throwing very difficult last night, however the cold temperature did appear to bring his velocity down again to earth a bit too.

So part of the velocity decline can be credited towards the weather. And a few from it is likely just random variation. While fastball speed is something that stabilizes quickly, pitchers dont throw precisely as hard in every start all season long. In fact, Arrieta has already were built with a few big velocity declines like this earlier in the year.

On July 2nd, inside a start against the Mets, Brooks recorded Arrietas sinker at an average of 97.2 mph. In the outing against the Cardinals 5 days later, it had been just 95.2. Same thing in September; 96.6 from the Diamondbacks, then 94.7 from the Phillies. While Arrietas sinker velocity yesterday was his lowest of the season, a 2 mph drop from game to game isnt unprecedented for him, as well as in each of the previous cases when he saw a big drop, he continued to pitch well and regained his velocity in subsequent starts.

And talking about pitching well, it ought to probably be noted that he threw the ball much better than four runs allowed in five innings would suggest.

On the night time, Arrieta faced 21 batters, and just six of them reached base, a .285 OBP allowed, and one of those six came when Joe Maddon ordered an intentional walk of Daniel Murphy. Ignoring the intentional walk, batters who swung the bat against Arrieta got on base in a .250 clip against him, only a few ticks north of the .236 OBP he allowed throughout the regular season. Its not like he was constantly pitching from trouble.

And he struck out 38% from the batters, so, even without his best stuff, its nothing like the Mets were consistently getting in touch against him. The truth is, Arrieta started the sport with two very poorly located pitches to Curtis Granderson and David Wright, and then Daniel Murphy hit a Josh Hawkins Jerseyvery improbable home run on a curveball that was nearly in the dirt. Murphy didnt exactly crush it, and also to every other area of the ballpark, its a flyout, speculate he hooked it all the way down the road, Arrieta ended up giving up three runs before he recorded an out.

But next, he set Willie Davis Jersey down six straight, including four strikeouts, after which threw in the towel his fourth run when a walk was followed by a few stolen bases and a single. This really is among those days when a 7.20 ERA doesnt tell the storyline. If Arrieta had spread out his mistakes over his five innings of labor instead of bundling them in to the first and third innings, he probably only gives up a run or two. While he didnt have his best stuff, the Mets only put up four runs against him because they could sequence their positive events in the most effective order po sible.

Maybe a number of that was because Arrieta didnt have his best fastball yesterday, but more likely, thats just baseball. It happens.

We know that Arrieta didnt have his best stuff last night. We can state that Arrieta threw in the towel four runs yesterday. Each of those activities are true. But I dont know that we can connect the above facts that simply, and its probably an overstatement to say that Arrietas mi sing velocity doomed the Cubs in Game Two. Daniel Murphy hitting an absurd homer, and the Mets pitching staff being really freaking good are probably much more of a precise story to become telling today.

If Arrieta gets another chance to help out this series, its probably a good idea to bet on him both throwing harder and getting better results than he did last night. One begin with a velocity dip (on a cold night) where the opponents strung their hits together probably isnt enough need to get really worried about Jake Arrieta.