messagesutra

Posted by alex on August 15th, 2018

Now, in a static world, it would be that simple. Goalies’ and players’ strategies would be fixed, with neither adjusting for the behavior of the other. But that’s not how it works. Especially in professional sports, where teams’ and players’ tendencies are both studied and observed prior to competition, players learn from one another. Thus, their behaviors — and specifically those displayed in a one-versus-one scenario, such as a penalty kick — evolve in response to one another. If players taking penalty kicks started routinely kicking the ball at the goalie, goalies everywhere would adjust, and strategies on both sides would find a new equilibrium — but not before those taking penalty kicks would’ve scored just a few more times than usual.

Despite the math, however, players haven’t taken advantage of what would on the surface appear to be an extremely compelling opportunity. The question, then, is why?

The 57% strong side, 41% weak side, 2% center equilibrium is what is known in economics as a Nash Equilibrium. Essentially, in a two player game, like a penalty kick, each player will play the strategy that maximizes their payoff based on what they think the other player is most likely to do. In soccer, however, this equilibrium is complicated by the presence of highly irrational — and sometimes violent — spectators. There would be no way to explain to a fan whose team had just lost the World Cup, after all, that their star player’s decision to aim their penalty kick directly at the goalie was actually hyper-rational, and not utterly condemnable.

Subsequent analysis found that when goalies leap, they typically go to the kicker’s strong side (left side for a right-footed kicker and right side for a left-footed kicker) — 57% of the time, in fact. The other 41% of the time, they dive to the kicker’s weak side. It would seem obvious, then, where players should kick the ball: their own weak side. But that strategy ignores that 57% + 41% is only 98%. What happens the other 2% of the time, when goalies dive neither left nor right? The answer is obvious: 2% of the time when trying to block a penalty kick, goalies stay right where they are. So if you’re a soccer player taking a penalty kick, where does it make the most sense to kick the ball? Easy answer, given the data: right at the goalie. 98 times out of 100, you’ll score.

he FIFA World Cup, and specifically the penalty-kick-heavy match I watched a few weeks ago between Colombia and England, reminded me of the first chapter of a book I read last year called , by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, the hosts of the Freakonomicspodcast. The first chapter was about where to aim a penalty kick to maximize the chance of a goal. Because of players’ proximity to the goal when taking a penalty kick, goalies have little option aside from guessing where the player will kick it, and then diving in that direction. Logically, then, both players and goalies should analyze each others’ tendencies to better perform in a penalty kicking scenario.if you want some awesome & exciting love images, love wishes, love quotes, love gifs, love memes, love poems, love story .....then go ahead and click on love quotes

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alex

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alex
Joined: August 15th, 2018
Articles Posted: 1