US-China trade war or indefinite extension

Posted by qianjiu on May 15th, 2019

With China’s anti-measures on the US’s 0 billion increase in tariffs on Chinese goods on May 13, coupled with the patriotic sentiment of all official media to try to ignite ordinary people, the United States and China have been in existence for nearly a year. The trade war has not only escalated, but has also increased the possibility of evolving into a protracted trade war.

Last week, the 11th round of trade negotiations between the United States and China ended in a hurry and did not make any breakthrough. According to the Wall Street Journal, after President Trump announced that he would raise the tariff on Chinese goods worth 200 billion U.S. dollars from 10% to 25%, both sides have no hope for this negotiation. The sole purpose of the negotiations is to avoid negotiating thoroughly. rupture.

The direct cause of US President Trump’s increase of China’s commodity tariffs is that the US accuses China of suddenly withdrawing its previous commitments, including intellectual property protection, compulsory technology transfer, government subsidies and other core issues of concern to the US. The US request is to provide a detailed list of laws and regulations that China needs to revise in the final agreement text.

This requirement is difficult for Beijing to accept because it is considered to be in dignity. Liu He, the Chinese vice premier who led the Chinese negotiations, made clear for the first time on Friday (May 10) that China’s three core principles, namely the elimination of tariffs and trade purchases, are in line with reality and improve the balance of the agreement text. Sex. He said that on the bottom line of these principles, China will never make concessions.

Shi Yinhong, a well-known American scholar of American issues and director of the American Studies Center of Renmin University, told VOA that the negotiating conditions proposed by the US were too strict and the main reason for the failure of the two sides to reach an agreement. “This is to take China as a second child and ask China to sign a very unequal treaty,” he said. “I have signed a deal with the United States to retain a large part of the tariff, as a very strict and meticulous supervision of China, and China. In the course of the negotiation, some principled commitments were made in principle, and they were immediately pegged by the United States. They were fixed (fixed), they could not be changed, and they changed their minds.

At the same time, China’s major official media have already begun to attack the United States to raise tariffs on Chinese goods and launch new tariffs on Chinese goods. China’s CCTV’s “News Network” on the evening of May 13 was a rare and announcing an editorial by the announcer. “The Chinese nation, which has experienced more than 5,000 years of ups and downs, has never seen any kind of battle,” said the announcer. “The US-sponsored trade war with China is just a hurdle in China’s development process. No big deal, China must We will strengthen our confidence, overcome difficulties, turn crisis into opportunity, and fight for a new world.”

The Financial Times reported that the upgrade of China’s official speech was to strengthen the support of China’s long-term struggle with the United States.

After China announced its counter-measures against the United States, Trump threatened to say that a large number of companies would move out of China because of tariffs, which is why China very much hopes to reach an agreement with the United States. His tweet wrote, “No one will do business in China. This is very bad for China and good for the United States! But China has been cheaper in the United States for many years, and they are already far ahead (our former presidents have not done their duty) So, China should not retaliate – it will only be worse!”

“China is very reluctant to fight,” said Shi Yinhong of Renmin University. “But the Chinese side’s cost of ending the US game is too high and too high for the Chinese government!”

Right now, Washington and Beijing have left each other with a window of about three weeks because the new tariff measures announced by both sides have not been implemented immediately. Beijing set the threshold for the new tariff measures to start at 0:00 on June 1. This is because the U.S. announced that the tariff on Chinese goods worth 200 billion U.S. dollars will increase to 25% from May 10, and it will actually take effect on the freighter departing from the Chinese port after 12:01 on May 10, Beijing time. . These freighters arrived at the US port across the Pacific for exactly three weeks.

Although both the United States and China have indicated that the negotiations have not broken down, sources familiar with the situation said that the US-China trade negotiations are now in a state of stagnation. According to a report by CNN, since the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He left Washington to return to Beijing last Friday, there has been no progress in the negotiations.

Now, negotiators in both countries seem to pin their hopes of restarting negotiations at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan in June.

“I think the meeting between the two heads of state is now the only hope for the two sides to return to the negotiating table,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Forces Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies at the Washington think tank, to the Voice of America.

However, Graeme said that whether the “special seminar” can promote the resumption of negotiations between the two countries is highly uncertain. She said: “If they can’t do it, it’s hard to imagine that the US and China can restart negotiations in the short term.”

After China has thrown out the so-called “three core principles” and said that it will never make concessions on the issue of principle, Beijing’s consideration now is that Washington will make compromises on these issues.

Shi Yinhong, an expert on American issues at Renmin University, said that if the US does not make concessions, even if the US and Chinese heads of state hold talks at the G20 summit, the final agreement may still be difficult to achieve. He said: “If Trump does not have a basic change in position, he will basically let Xi Jinping return to all the positions that the United States insisted on, so Xi Jinping is very difficult to accept. Moreover, Liu He is just an instruction to implement President Xi. Because you are the United States. The president has a big face, I can make some concessions. But to make so many concessions, I guess, if the US position did not change much at the end of June, I think (the US-China) will not reach an agreement, and still can’t reach an agreement.”

However, according to the New York Times, Trump has recently become tough on the position of trade negotiations with China, although he has been hoping for an agreement in the past few months. He now shows a stronger posture and withdraws from the negotiations at any time, because in the 2020 US presidential election is approaching, this may give him political points.

But on Tuesday morning (May 14), Trump re-tweeted the US-China trade talks. He said in the tweet, “When the time is right, we will reach an agreement with China. I have unlimited respect and friendship with President Xi, but as I told him many times before, for the United States, this must be A great deal, otherwise it doesn’t make sense. Let us regain some of the huge lost ground we have lost to China since the WTO was ridiculously formed. It will happen more than people think. It’s much faster.” This seems to imply that he still looks forward to an agreement with China.

Ge Laiyi of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that for Trump, the best result is still a very good trade agreement with China, if that is possible. Then, Trump can show off what he did not do before the former president.

Gree said, “But such an agreement may not be available, so that his choice is a bad agreement or simply no agreement. If these two options, then no agreement is more in line with him personally. The political interests, because he can say that China did not seriously negotiate, he can return to his (in China) elaboration in the 2016 election campaign.”

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