"Brexit" puzzles reversed the short-term abnormal acceleration of the British ec

Posted by qianjiu on May 17th, 2019

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 10th, due to the uncertainty of the “Brexit” uncertainty, the UK’s economy grew by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2019, higher than the fourth quarter of last year. 0.2%. But economists believe that this kind of "abnormal" growth of the economy is difficult to sustain, and the British economy is facing a severe situation in the second quarter.

Statistics show that UK manufacturing output increased by 2.2% in the first quarter, becoming the biggest highlight of the season. However, other industries continued to be weak, with nearly 80% of the UK's service output slowing to 0.3%. Agricultural and forestry fisheries output showed a negative growth of 1.8%.

The United Kingdom was originally scheduled to "Brexit" on March 29, but the company has been preparing for "no agreement to leave the EU" because the British parliament has been unable to pass the "Brexit" agreement reached between the UK and Europe. Once the UK “no agreement to leave the EU”, the UK-Europe trade relationship will fall back to the WTO framework, and all incoming and outgoing goods will face procedures such as verification and taxation, which will impact the UK manufacturing industry throughout the European supply chain. As a result, most British manufacturing companies have stepped up their production and sold a large amount of goods before March 29, which has led to accelerated economic growth.

In addition, both seasonal consumption and investment have played a role in driving UK economic growth. Among them, consumption growth is mainly driven by government spending, and consumer demand for ordinary British people continues to be weak. The UK's Gfk consumer confidence index was negative at 13 in April, indicating that consumer confidence continues to fall.

Investment is also mainly driven by government investment. Business investment has fallen for four consecutive quarters at the end of last year. Analysts believe that overall, the UK's business investment intentions remain weak in the first quarter, with manufacturing investment intentions dropping sharply and service industry investment intentions also falling.

According to the month, the UK's economic growth rate dropped month by month in the first three months of this year, and there was also negative growth in March, which was mainly dragged down by the shrinking of the service industry and the construction industry. Therefore, Parrick, a senior economist at the British Institute of Directors, said that the UK's economic growth in the first quarter is likely to be "a short-lived".

Gary Young, head of the macroeconomic forecasting department of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research in the United Kingdom, also pointed out that the UK's economic growth in the first quarter was mainly driven by temporary factors and was difficult to sustain. He said that increasing stocks in response to Brexit makes output look stronger, but that means that when stocks fall, future output will fall.

The Bank of England’s Bank of England said earlier this month that the economy’s growth rate will slow down to 0.2% in the second quarter as companies are rushing to stock up before the UK’s “Brexit” deadline.

Wonderful sharing:

We specialize in the production of precision machine parts, mechanical parts,precision machining, OEM machinery parts,cnc machining,cnc milling,cnc turning parts.

Like it? Share it!


About the Author

Joined: April 30th, 2019
Articles Posted: 29

More by this author