The new Brexit draft is not optimistic. The UK economy continues to be under pre

Posted by qianjiu on May 24th, 2019

British Prime Minister Teresa May recently announced that he plans to submit a new draft of the Brexit draft to the parliament for the fourth week starting on June 3, but the prospects for the adoption of the plan are still not optimistic, Teresa May also There may be a “forced palace”, and the risk of no agreement to leave the EU will also rise, and the UK economy will continue to bear the negative impact of the stand-off of the Brexit situation.

Following the failure of three parliamentary votes, British Prime Minister Teresa May recently announced that he plans to submit a vote to the parliament for the fourth time in the week of June 3, and said that if the parliament votes for the draft, Then voted on the "Temporary Customs Union" and other Brexit conditions and whether to hold a "second referendum" to decide whether to continue to leave the European Union. She said that it is her duty to let the draft of the Brexit vote through the parliament. The revised draft of the Brexit is the only one that can complete the Brexit. The vote in June is also the "last chance" for the British to leave the European Union.

The new draft has increased political protection and further delegated power to the parliament. The new Brexit Agreement Act combines the views of opposition parties, business leaders, industry and trade associations and will legally require the government to seek alternatives to the "back-to-back clause" by December 2020 to address Ireland and Northern Ireland. The "boundary" issue, even if the "bottom terms" finally come into effect, the United Kingdom will be consistent with Northern Ireland in customs and customs arrangements to ensure the integrity and unity of the United Kingdom. At the same time, the agreement will give the parliament greater power to master the process of the follow-up negotiations between the EU and the EU. The agreement also reaffirms the government's commitment to work with the EU to achieve a “frictionless” trade arrangement, protect domestic employment opportunities and end unrestricted free movement of people. In addition, by ensuring timely coordination of EU and border customs and customs regulations on trade in goods and agricultural products, it provides certainty for trade between goods and agricultural products between the UK and Europe, and avoids the impact of Brexit on British manufacturers and retailers.

From the new draft, we can also see efforts to bridge the key differences between the two parties. On May 17, the cross-party coordination proposed by Teresa May broke down due to the key differences between the Conservative Party and the opposition party on whether to remain in the EU Customs Union. In order to win the support of the opposition party, in addition to the "second referendum", Teresa May also proposed a parliamentary vote to determine whether to establish a temporary customs union for merchandise trade with the EU, so that the UK maintains consistency with EU trade policy and will continue to see it in the future. The will of the parliament and the government determine the direction of the trade arrangement. Previously, Teresa May's program supported the establishment of a new customs union relationship with the European Union to ensure that the UK has sufficient independence and flexibility in the “tariff price” when signing a free trade agreement with other countries, but the Labour Party Suspicion of the government's ability to promote trade negotiations, it is advocated to remain in the original customs union.

The analysis believes that although Teresa May has made further compromises such as the "second referendum" and "temporary customs union" for more support for the new program, the prospects for the adoption of the program are still not optimistic. Opposition leader Corbin said that apart from political guarantees, the content of the new agreement is not rigidly bound. Basically, it is in the "frozen meal," and the Teresa May government has no ability to lead the progress of Brexit.
       If the fourth vote fails again, it will bring more confusion and uncertainty to the already exhausted British politics and economy. According to the British Broadcasting Corporation, Teresa May’s new plan did not receive the majority support from the party. The Conservative Party is preparing a new round of “forced palaces”, and Teresa May may step down earlier than previously expected. On May 16, Brady, chairman of the "1922 Committee" of the Conservative Party group, said that after the parliament voted again on the Brexit agreement in early June, Prime Minister Teresa May will announce his resignation time. Teresa May himself said that regardless of the outcome of the vote in June, he will resign as prime minister soon. At present, former Foreign Minister Johnson, International Development Minister Stuart, Pension Minister McVeigh and others have publicly announced that they will run for the Conservative Party leader.

If the fourth parliament vote fails or Teresa May suddenly stepped down, the uncertainty of the Brexit process will increase sharply, and the risk of no agreement to leave the European Union will rise, and the British economy will continue to bear The negative impact of the stalemate in Europe. Yu Xiuyuan, head of the UBS Fortune London Investment Office, said that from the first quarter of the UK GDP data, it can be seen that the UK's economic situation is better than expected. Although the impact of Brexit is slowly digested by the market, it does not mean that the uncertainty has disappeared. At present, the impact of Brexit on the market has been temporarily subsided but there will still be iterations, and this repetition will become very sudden. Under the stagnation of Brexit, corporate investment and consumer confidence are continuously affected, which will increase the opportunity cost and have a negative impact on the UK economy.

The United Kingdom was scheduled to officially leave the European Union on March 29, but the Brexit agreement with the European Union was delayed by three votes in the parliament. In order to avoid "no agreement" to leave the EU, the EU has agreed to extend the final deadline for Brexit until October 31.

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