新首相给英国经济带来什么

Posted by qianjiu on August 23rd, 2019

The uncertainty of Brexit has made manufacturing data volatile, and weak base growth has triggered market concerns about possible recession. The new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, after entering the Downing Street last month, intends to add a "rocket booster" to the economy. However, from the bleak economic growth data released by the government, “rocket launch” needs more “fuel”.

Overall decline
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom, in the three months to June, UK output fell by 0.2%, weaker than economists had expected before, and also lower than the 0.5% increase in the first quarter. Manufacturing and construction output both fell sharply, business investment fell again, and the service sector, which has the largest share of the UK economy, experienced almost no positive growth.

The UK economy also experienced its first contraction in the second quarter in the second quarter, due to the slowdown in inventory activity and the growing uncertainty of Brexit in the context of slowing global growth. The weaker-than-expected UK economic data also hit the pound, causing it to fall to a two-and-a-half-year low.

British shadow finance minister John McDonnell said that these second quarter economic data is a direct result of the Conservatives' incompetence. He also warned that the poor performance of Brexit is destroying the economy. The British real finance minister, Said Javed, points the finger at the global economic weakness. He said that the global economy is experiencing a period of challenging times, and growth in many countries is slowing. However, the UK economy underperformed the Eurozone, the United States and Japan in the second quarter, where output continued to grow, ranging from 0.2% to 0.5%.

The IMF expects that by 2019, the UK's economic growth will be only half that of the United States and will not exceed the euro zone average.

The UK's economic downturn in the second quarter was largely due to fluctuations in inventories and trade with EU countries, as companies reduced their accumulated stocks before the Brexit deadline. Before the deadline for the Brexit deadline scheduled for March 29th, countries rushed to hoard products, which boosted the UK economy, but when the extension application was approved, countries reduced their stocks. Therefore, some analysts predict that the UK economy will expand again in the third quarter, as countries will once again hoard inventory to cushion the impact of the UK's non-agreement of Brexit.

In addition, the potential growth rate of the UK economy has slowed, reflecting the downturn in global manufacturing and concerns that companies are unable to reach a Brexit agreement.

Can you turn the tide?

Thomas Pupp of Kay's macro consulting firm said that unless it does not reach a Brexit agreement, the UK should be able to avoid a recession. Most forecasters also expect that UK economic growth will accelerate in the short term and will break out of recession after two consecutive quarters. This is partly because manufacturing output should recover: some companies began to rebuild their stocks before the Brexit deadline in October; they also benefited from a new bright spot in the UK economy, where consumer spending continued to be strong.

Economists generally believe that as long as the labor market is not suddenly shocked, the UK's consumer spending in the coming months will continue to support economic growth. According to the survey data, most of the UK's current financial situation is good, thanks to the high employment rate and the steady increase in recent wages.

In addition, the British government is also supporting economic growth. The latest fiscal data shows that government fiscal expenditure has maintained growth since the end of 2018, and expenditures in the second quarter increased by 0.7%. This may reflect an increase in public sector salaries and an increase in the UK’s additional spending for Brexit.

Berlenberg economist Callum Pickering said that no matter what happens on October 31, the government needs to give the market a shot in the arm, so that after a long period of uncertainty, they can get Some clear signals to return investment and productivity growth to the country.

He added that the government may also introduce a large number of fiscal stimulus measures in the future. Samuel Thoms, chief economist of the Pantheon's macroeconomics, said that GDP data will "inspire people's expectations", that is, the Bank of England's next step will be to cut interest rates. He said that the market now believes that before the last meeting of central bank governor Mark Carney in October, the probability of a rate cut is 70%.

According to a government official, Jared is planning a new public fund injection throughout the summer. He promised to announce a one-year government sector spending solution next month. He also said that the "phased reform" plan for infrastructure investment this fall will be introduced.

However, the overall situation of the UK economy is still weak, companies are reluctant to invest, and sustained economic growth is overly dependent on consumption is a big problem to be solved. Resolution Foundation Deputy Chief Ma Fetek said that the continued uncertainty of Brexit and the global economic weakness do not necessarily mean that we are heading for recession, but this risk has undoubtedly exacerbated the survival of many low-income families in response to a new recession. risk.

Earlier this month, the Bank of England cut its expectations for UK economic growth. It is expected that the UK economy will grow by 1.3% this year and next, provided the UK successfully leaves the EU. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has made it clear that not reaching a Brexit agreement will lead to unemployment and inflation soaring in a short period of time, which in turn will seriously hit the real income of the people. If there is another problem in the consumption chain, the recession will surely come.

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