Afghanistan: Assessment- 2019
Posted by Thomas Shaw on September 2nd, 2019
On March 1, 2019, no less than 23 Afghan soldiers have been killed and a different 15 injured as Taliban militants attacked the Shorab Military Base in Helmand Province. In the retaliatory action, the Afghan Security Forces (SFs) killed 20 militants. Get a lot more details about Terrorism Assessment Afghanistan
On February 16, 2019, Taliban militants carried out an attack on a security post in a remote region of Kandahar Province killing all 32 men posted at the base. One with the attackers was also killed.
On January 21, 2019, a minimum of 126 Afghan SF personnel have been killed in an attack in Maidan Wardak Province. A Taliban suicide bomber drove and exploded a captured military Humvee packed with explosives into a training center of your National Directorate for Security (NDS). A minimum of two other Taliban gunmen followed, spraying the compound with gunfire just before they had been shot down. “We have facts that 126 people happen to be killed within the explosion inside the military training centre, eight particular commandoes are among the dead,” an unnamed defense official disclosed.
Based on partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 265 Afghan SF personnel have died within the present year so far (data till March 3, 2019). Through the corresponding period of 2018, Afghanistan recorded for 162 Afghan SF fatalities. Through 2018, there had been a total of 1,526 SF deaths. Afghanistan recorded 517 Afghan SF fatalities in 2017, 778 in 2016, 1,222 in 2015 and 770 in 2014.
This information, however, probably reflects huge under-reporting.
Certainly, on January 25, 2019, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani disclosed, "Since I've turn out to be president... over 45,000 Afghan security personnel have paid the ultimate sacrifice." [No year wise break up was provided]. Ghani was sworn in as President on September 29, 2014. Ghani also stated that, due to the fact then, “the number of international casualties is significantly less than 72," and argued that this "shows who's undertaking the fighting”.
The International Security Help Force (ISAF) officially concluded its combat mission in Afghanistan at an occasion held at ISAF headquarters in Kabul on December 28, 2014. Due to the fact then, Afghanistan Forces have already been on forefront in fight against terrorist formations operating across Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, the number of militants killed considering the fact that Ghani assumed office on September 29, 2014, is 46,858 based on the SATP database. A total of 11,684 terrorists had been killed in 2018 as against 10,798 in 2017. The number of militant fatalities was 11,469 in 2016; 10,628 in 2015; and 955 in 2014, due to the fact September 29, (total fatalities via 2014 have been 6,030). At least 1,324 terrorists have already been killed in the current year (data till March 3, 2019).
Evidently, the Afghan SFs are facing a difficult battle due to the fact September 29, 2014. Though they've achieved a good kill ratio of 1: 1.04, the sheer scale of SF fatalities clearly will not suggest a strong position of benefit. On the contrary, the ratio was considerably in favour of SFs between 2007 and 2013, when the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was in lead and the Afghan Forces have been supporting them. Through this period, the kill ratio stood at 1:2.01 (14,406 SF personnel; 29,028 terrorist).
Unsurprisingly, casualties amongst civilians, the very best indicator with the prevailing security situation in any theatre of conflict, have been increasing because 2014, using the exception of 2017. A lot more worryingly, 2018 registered 3,804 fatalities among civilians, the highest ever recorded by UNAMA considering the fact that 2009 [when the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) first started counting civilian fatalities]. The previous higher of 3,701 fatalities was recorded in 2014. The fatalities in the civilian category remained beneath 3,000 for 4 out of the five years in between 2009 and 2013. Civilian fatalities stood at 3,133 in 2011.
Meanwhile, according to the latest quarterly report released on January 30, 2109, by the Particular Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), as of October 22, 2018, only 54 per cent of Afghan Districts had been under the influence or control from the Afghan Government, as against 72 per cent in November 2015. Alternatively, Districts under insurgents influence or control elevated from seven per cent in November 2015, to 12 per cent in October 2018. Similarly, Districts ‘under contention’ increased from 21 per cent in November 2015 to 34 per cent in October 2018. In absolute terms, in October 2018, there have been a total of 74 Districts beneath Government control and yet another 145 below its influence, as against 12 below insurgent control and 38 under their influence. The number of contested Districts was 138. Afghanistan has a total of 407 Districts.
Conspicuously, the all round security situation in Afghanistan has quickly deteriorated due to the fact the ill-advised deployment of under prepared Afghan Forces inside the lead part in fight against terrorism, in the aftermath of the premature withdrawal of ISAF personnel in December 2014. On the other hand, rather than realizing and correcting its mistake, the US is now contemplating a additional troop cut as well as a 'final exit' from the theatre. In an attempt to justify his stand on withdrawal, US President Donald Trump argued, on January 2, 2019,
... So you take a look at other nations. Pakistan is there; they ought to be fighting. But Russia must be fighting. The reason Russia was in Afghanistan was since terrorists have been going into Russia. They had been appropriate to be there. The problem is it was a challenging fight. And actually, they went bankrupt. They went into being known as Russia again, as opposed towards the Soviet Union. You know, a whole lot these places you're reading about now are no longer a portion of Russia due to Afghanistan. But why is not Russia there? Why isn't India there? Why isn't Pakistan there? Why are we there, and we're 6,000 miles away?
Apart from the evident ignorance of each history and geopolitics manifest in this statement, it is actually clear that the US is now practically admitting defeat and has intensified attempts to attain out for a face saving remedy, even as the Taliban becomes additional highly effective than it has been at any stage because 2001. Certainly, the two sides have held many rounds of negotiations in Qatar, UAE and Pakistan more than the previous lots of months. On March 2, 2019, just a day following the March 1, 2019, attack around the Helmand Military base where each the Afghan and US Forces are stationed, and, which killed 23 Afghan personnel, the US resumed talks with all the Taliban in Doha. Referring towards the talks, Taliban 'spokesperson' Zabihullah Mujahid inside a statement released on March 3, 2019, disclosed,
The present round of talks in Doha are advancing on a step-by-step basis. Because the situation at hand is immensely essential and delicate, its progression is taking place with that substantially care and vigilance. The talks throughout January saw an agreement concerning withdrawal of occupying forces and stopping Afghanistan from becoming used against others, but this round of talks are about the details and nature of those two troubles. It needs to be mentioned that no understanding has so far been reached about any agreement or document.
Ironically, on February 25, 2019, US Unique Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad thanked Pakistan for facilitating the travel of Taliban leaders to Qatar for the existing round of talks held in Doha. An unnamed US embassy spokesperson in Kabul revealed on December 15, 2018, "The United states of america welcomes any actions by the Pakistani government to promote greater cooperation, like fostering negotiations amongst the Taliban, the Afghan government, and also other Afghans." Per day earlier, Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan had disclosed,
By the grace of Allah, the dialogue is now happening inshallah [God willing] around the 17th and Pakistan has facilitated the talks between America as well as the Taliban. Imran didn't share additional details. Drastically, the US has sought to place intense pressure on Pakistan to end help towards the Taliban and Haqqani network on quite a few occasions in the past, and has targeted terrorists connected with these formations repeatedly on Pakistani soil inside a succession of drone attacks.
Pakistan the principal destabilizer in Afghanistan has thus been ceded the role of central player by the US within the talks using the Taliban. The move has rightly been opposed by the Afghanistan. Inside a letter to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Afghanistan's Deputy Permanent Representative towards the UN Nazifullah Salarzai observed, on February 15, 2019, that Pakistan's invitation to the Taliban amounted to a violation of Afghanistan's national sovereignty. The letter argued, additional, that as there was no co-ordination using the Afghan Government, this course of action posed a critical threat towards the country's security. In a tweet, Afghan Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sibghatullah Ahmadi added, Pakistan's move not just undermines the ongoing peace efforts but in addition falls in violation of UNSC Resolution 1988.
The possibilities of peace in Afghanistan are swiftly receding, as Pakistan and its terrorist proxies, emboldened by the ‘defeat’ with the US and its Coalition partners, are probably to make much more chaos within the country, and potentially inside the wider South Asian area. Forces rooted in an ideology of religious hatred and extremist unreason are progressively being promoted using the active cooperation of the US and its partners, even as an elected Government at Kabul is marginalized within the negotiation course of action.
