Tips for Football Games - Money Management
Posted by jemivel322 on September 29th, 2020
But in a hurry to get their money's worth, most people overlook this important aspect of football games. So what is money management? Let's look at it in simple terms: You play in two football matches. You know that one will give a profit 80% of the time and the other has a 50-50 chance of winning. You want to spend more money on the match with an 80% chance of profit, would not you? It's money management.
It is basically managing your money to cope with the risk. So logic says that on the risky games you have to risk less money, and on the bets that are stronger you have to bet more money. This may seem like common sense to you, but it is often overlooked.
Now the next question is: How do we calculate how much we should spend on a team? The most common method is to spend the same amount (level bet) on each choice. While this may work in the long run, in the short term, be aware of long sequences of losers from the cheaper football tips. Four or five losers in a row can quickly empty your bank. Therefore, it may be better to look for a different ค่าตัวนักเตะหลังโควิด.
Another approach that many suggest is the Kelly Criterion. Kelly, however, requires that you know the probability of a victory. The bet size is then determined by first converting the offered price to a probability. You must then estimate the probability that your bet will win. The difference between sportsbook price probability and your probability must be positive. If it's negative, drop this football tip like a ton of bricks and move on to the next game. The size of the bet is then calculated using this difference in probability. A larger difference suggests a larger investment and a small difference suggests a smaller investment.
Now as you can imagine, the average person cannot estimate the probability that his football prediction will win. So this method does not do much good for him. Yes, mathematicians and professionals welcome this formula, and do not get me wrong, it is theoretically good - but it fails in practice. If at least 90% of the people who try to use it fail and I guess it's you and me included.
Instead, I prefer to use the available average price. Sports books have studied the fights in depth and it is not often that they get the prices wrong. So why not use this to our advantage? This enables our enemies to strengthen their weakness. Yes, I know that distractions happen, but if you look at the prices of sports books over a long period of time, you will find that if they quote a result with equal money, this result will appear very close to 50% of the time.
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